You think that satellite radio will take over regular radio in a couple of years!
Question: Wow, Derek is way off the mark. Satellite radio is one of the fastest growing mediums there is, growing even faster than cell phones did at this stage of their existence. Satellite radio is one of the best products out there and offers so much more than an mp3 player ever could, anyone who has it knows what I mean.
I don't think it will ever take it over just like cable tv did not take over broadcast television. Satellite radio will force terrestrial to improve its product and I think, if they ever grow a brain, radio as a whole will be alot better. Of course, the opposite is happening right now with HD Radio looking like a big turd and stations changing formats like socks. Eventually, terrestrial radio will take satellite seriously when its listenership continues to drop like a stone and they can't sell ads for more than $10 a minute (on the national level).
Answers: Wow, Derek is way off the mark. Satellite radio is one of the fastest growing mediums there is, growing even faster than cell phones did at this stage of their existence. Satellite radio is one of the best products out there and offers so much more than an mp3 player ever could, anyone who has it knows what I mean.
I don't think it will ever take it over just like cable tv did not take over broadcast television. Satellite radio will force terrestrial to improve its product and I think, if they ever grow a brain, radio as a whole will be alot better. Of course, the opposite is happening right now with HD Radio looking like a big turd and stations changing formats like socks. Eventually, terrestrial radio will take satellite seriously when its listenership continues to drop like a stone and they can't sell ads for more than $10 a minute (on the national level).
maybe a couple of decades.
No. They are both going to be irrelevant in a couple of years. With so many people stealing music for their mp3 players, why would they pay for satellite radio or deal with crappy AM/FM radio's limited choices and plentiful commercials?
Well, look what happened to the old Mutual Broadcasting System...and NBC Radio...and ABC Radio...
Now we're limited to ClearChannel, Premiere Radio(a Clear Channel subsidiary), and Fox News!
Trust me, XM and Sirius will kill off REAL radio as we know it!
Look at MTV(when it premiered the Buggles' "Video Killed the Radio Star" back in '81, it started the death knell for radio formats that we knew and loved)!...then KIIS-FM in L.A. fired Rick Dees, and we lost Casey Kasem to "easy listening w/ no commercials" Clear Channel crap(Casey's still alive, thank goodness!...but not on the air anymore?)
Toucan Sam had about the idea I am having about Sat radio except that Satellite radio may become irreverent in 10 years.
I agree with him in that people who can't stand terrestrial is going to Satellite radio for the variety and people will not be mp3 dependant only as it's hard to research every song that you like for the past say 10 years and pay or steal it... and organize it in a way to make you want to listen (Good PDs and MDs group songs into a flow to keep people listening, Bad ones hit shuffle just like a i-pod)
People who love music like variety and radio as well as the internet spotlights new music where mp3s won't (unless you want to download every crappy song I-tunes says is a hit)
But the 10 year plan for satellite radio is the cable tv model.... get them enticed on variety and no commercials then slowly add in the commercials till people accept it for the variety... We still watch the networks that are over the air on tv, Even though there are naysayers pronouncing the death of terrestrial radio, It won't die as it will receive a big wakeup call to survive like the networks did in the 1980s
People won't pay if they don't have to.. look at how many untold people are ripping music peer to peer for proof.. people don't highly value paying for variety sometimes.
I did say another force is coming... wireless internet is getting better by the day. we are already having the cell networks connecting you at 1 meg in some places and better over cell phone... the networks will become more wide area and people will stream it off the internet to say hear BBC 4 in their car in Boston for instance.
People however espcially in smaller towns and in lower demographics will still be consumers of terrestrial radio. Radio will have to go back to what people remember about radio to get them inticed again on it.
But I read a online thing everyday by Jerry Del Colliano who predicts the death of terrestrial radio. I don't think it will die but it will be wholesale changed and soon.
But I also agree with his views that people will stream more once the networks come up... the only thing that will kill all of this is the record companies.
On HD... If it wasn't the same crud warmed over, I think we could have a market for it.. however roll out on it sucks big time.. and is only good in those few areas where HD2 is actually providing a station that would have normally been killed off for low ratings in traditional radio.
Good question and some great answers. Terrestrial will not go away anytime soon. Consider how much money is invested in that business and you realize the big money players aren't going to let it go. A license in a big market is still worth big bucks. Add transmitters, other equipment, people and all the other expenses involved in operating a successful station and it's just too much to abandon.
They'll figure out the changes that must be made, make them and carry on. Some stations will go away, but the big signals will be here for quite a while.
Don't be fooled by stock prices either, they have nothing to do with the everyday business of radio - which works for advertisers - and that's the key. It works.
Radio brings bodies in the door and rings the register. The huge multiples may diminish, the spot rates may go down, the profit margin could be less, the business plan tweaked, but radio will be around for quite a while. Maybe not forever - but certainly within our lifetimes.
MPs, HD, satellite, etc. will force these changes on terrestrial, but they won't blow them away. OK, why? LOCAL.
Radio's strength has always been its localism. As soon as the big players cash out (and that is happening as we speak), others will take over. Radio will return to its roots and become more local - again. This is what will continue to make radio viable (and the last few references have all been to terrestrial).
The names may change, but the concept will remain the same, with some minor changes.
Radio will continue to evolve. We withstood the onslaught of television and, after a hiccup or two (remember "Beautiful Music?" Yuck!) prospered. These other personal listening devices are just a little bit more competition thrown in the mix. But they can't sell shoes in Kansas City.
I worked in sales during the beginning of XM. We could barely give it away. They still can't. That's why you hear all the PI (per inquiry) commercials. The sex scams, Viagra ads, money-making stupidity and hoodie spots. The real revenue for satellite is all subscription based. They can't land the little local accounts that add up to big dollars and they can't even land the big national guys... yet. But they will eventually and radio will have to shuffle a bit, but not shuffle out of business.
It's going to be an interesting 10 years.
-a guy named duh